But maybe things could work out better? Yes, drones could be used to hunt down the population (so that we end up with the kind of dystopian future portrayed in the Terminator movies), but managed properly they could instead be used to protect a country’s borders and keep its population safe.
Here are some points I thought of that could mitigate the demographics winter.
1. The 0.78% rate is somewhat eugenic since it’s the more attractive and wealthier people that tend to have children.
2. Robots and AI will take many jobs in manufacturing, farming, retail, security, and business. Managed well, this could create enough wealth to take care of the demographic bump of old people.
After that populations may start to rise as there will be more room. Every big family could have a farm.
3. The move to big cities has left many old people isolated without much social support. Ideally, abandoned villages could be made into retirement communities. There, old people could be be housed, fed, and given light work at a fairly low cost.
4. Worthy couples could be encouraged with various incentives to have large families; ideally with provisos that prevent the program from having a dysgenic effect.
On the other hand, the implementation of ideas like these would depend on good and effective leaders who want to help their native populations, and these seem to be in short supply.
I have too heard of many of these proposed solutions but from my research Robots and A.I. further accelerate wealth inequality - the mechanism for a fair distribution of wealth simply does not exist and the more technology converges the more the same companies and the Governments they collaborate with receive the benefit and not unfortunately the people. I'm not sure people realize has fast the distribution of the Middle class is taking place. So over time I have grown pessimistic. The good leadership you speak of is difficult to implement since the efficacy of our democracies and the Nationalism in the authoritarian regimes prevents it.
Incentives to encourage people to have kids don't work like we see in Japan, China and South Korea.
Certainly I think your rural reclamation idea makes sense though, I wouldn't mind living in rural Japan for instance, if they ever offered the ability for immigrants to do that. That more countries are offering digital nomad visas is encouraging.
The problem is the automation, A.I. and robots while being a quick fix in some sectors, actually creates more civil unrest problems than it solves in the labor market as we will see this century. I don't believe more new jobs will be created at the pace that they will be disrupted and there's no sense that any basic income schemes could lead to a fair life for those who for whatever reason do not participate in the labor force.
My issue is in the economic dark age, humanity would have a far higher chance of collapsing entirely. It's a bit like the Foundation Novels before the fall.
Thank you for your well-thought-out answer. I agree that it’s far more likely that things are going to break down.
I also wouldn’t mind living on a small farm in the Japanese countryside, ideally in a community designed by the ‘Wrath of Gnon’ guy. However my wife is rather attached to the conveniences of the city, and so it doesn’t seem very likely.
Winter follows, Spring, Summer and Autumn - if we equate these seasons as ones for rapid growth, cultivation and harvest, it then follows that Winter is a time for rest and slow down. There are a number of Advanced Economies from Japan to Spain (I have lived in both), which are experiencing very low levels of fertility and rapid ageing.
Are these countries facing armageddon? No, but they do have slow growth, high state indebtedness and rural depopulation. Its not great, but its also not terrible.
We don't know the likely impact of AI, but I do feel positive about the initiatives being put in place in both of these countries, with more focus on child well being (Spain), health of labour force (Japan) and longer employment (Japan) - that suggests things are going to work out.
Finally on your point on populations being claimed by neighbouring countries, was that a driving factor for Russia's invasion of Ukraine? Could we foresee a situation where Chinese young people under the age of 30 cannot travel overseas (in case they don't return) and worst of all state sponsored human creation, a dystopian future is possible, but also a benign one too. Alas, we are unlikely to still be alive to see what happens.
True, true.
But maybe things could work out better? Yes, drones could be used to hunt down the population (so that we end up with the kind of dystopian future portrayed in the Terminator movies), but managed properly they could instead be used to protect a country’s borders and keep its population safe.
Here are some points I thought of that could mitigate the demographics winter.
1. The 0.78% rate is somewhat eugenic since it’s the more attractive and wealthier people that tend to have children.
2. Robots and AI will take many jobs in manufacturing, farming, retail, security, and business. Managed well, this could create enough wealth to take care of the demographic bump of old people.
After that populations may start to rise as there will be more room. Every big family could have a farm.
3. The move to big cities has left many old people isolated without much social support. Ideally, abandoned villages could be made into retirement communities. There, old people could be be housed, fed, and given light work at a fairly low cost.
4. Worthy couples could be encouraged with various incentives to have large families; ideally with provisos that prevent the program from having a dysgenic effect.
On the other hand, the implementation of ideas like these would depend on good and effective leaders who want to help their native populations, and these seem to be in short supply.
I have too heard of many of these proposed solutions but from my research Robots and A.I. further accelerate wealth inequality - the mechanism for a fair distribution of wealth simply does not exist and the more technology converges the more the same companies and the Governments they collaborate with receive the benefit and not unfortunately the people. I'm not sure people realize has fast the distribution of the Middle class is taking place. So over time I have grown pessimistic. The good leadership you speak of is difficult to implement since the efficacy of our democracies and the Nationalism in the authoritarian regimes prevents it.
Incentives to encourage people to have kids don't work like we see in Japan, China and South Korea.
Certainly I think your rural reclamation idea makes sense though, I wouldn't mind living in rural Japan for instance, if they ever offered the ability for immigrants to do that. That more countries are offering digital nomad visas is encouraging.
The problem is the automation, A.I. and robots while being a quick fix in some sectors, actually creates more civil unrest problems than it solves in the labor market as we will see this century. I don't believe more new jobs will be created at the pace that they will be disrupted and there's no sense that any basic income schemes could lead to a fair life for those who for whatever reason do not participate in the labor force.
My issue is in the economic dark age, humanity would have a far higher chance of collapsing entirely. It's a bit like the Foundation Novels before the fall.
Thank you for your well-thought-out answer. I agree that it’s far more likely that things are going to break down.
I also wouldn’t mind living on a small farm in the Japanese countryside, ideally in a community designed by the ‘Wrath of Gnon’ guy. However my wife is rather attached to the conveniences of the city, and so it doesn’t seem very likely.
Thanks Michael for your interesting thoughts.
Winter follows, Spring, Summer and Autumn - if we equate these seasons as ones for rapid growth, cultivation and harvest, it then follows that Winter is a time for rest and slow down. There are a number of Advanced Economies from Japan to Spain (I have lived in both), which are experiencing very low levels of fertility and rapid ageing.
Are these countries facing armageddon? No, but they do have slow growth, high state indebtedness and rural depopulation. Its not great, but its also not terrible.
We don't know the likely impact of AI, but I do feel positive about the initiatives being put in place in both of these countries, with more focus on child well being (Spain), health of labour force (Japan) and longer employment (Japan) - that suggests things are going to work out.
Finally on your point on populations being claimed by neighbouring countries, was that a driving factor for Russia's invasion of Ukraine? Could we foresee a situation where Chinese young people under the age of 30 cannot travel overseas (in case they don't return) and worst of all state sponsored human creation, a dystopian future is possible, but also a benign one too. Alas, we are unlikely to still be alive to see what happens.